بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

كلما اغلق يوم بعد يوم اخر تزيد قناعتى باننا ذاهبون الى الأسوء و يمكن انيكون بوتيره اسرع او ابطأ او بنفس السرعه التى كنت اتوقعها ان الايام القادمه ستوضح ذالك , ولكن دعونا نقتنص الفرص الخضراء بين تلك الايام السوداء وبخاصه فى هذه الفتره فترة التذبذبات المرتفعه بعد افصاح الشركات .

كما قلت سابقا بانى غير مقتنع بعملية الربط بين سوقنا والداو جونز ,ودعونا نجرب لعلى مخطأ او اكون على صواب , لنأخذ بعض الاسهم القديمه والاسهم الجديده مثل اعمار وتبريد من الاسهم القديمه والعربيه وميثاق من الاسهم الجديده لنبدأ بتحليلها .

لنبدأ باعمار موضحين الشارت الاسبوعى والشهرى لان تلك الفريمات قادره على توضيح مسار السوق المستقبليه .وكذالك بالطبع لانستغنى عن الفريم اليومى لانه يمدنا بالتفاصيل اليوميه المهمه بعمليات المضاربه .

كما تلاحظون بالشارت فان اعمار قد انهى الموجه التصحيحيه الثالثه من C ودخل بالموجه الرابعه بالجزء الاول منها وهو الان بصدد الجزء الثانى الصاعد وتكون نهايته اقل من الجزء الاول المنتهى سابقا وهو على ما اعتقد 7,87 درهم ليصححنى الاخرين لا اعلم بالضبط على اى سعر .
كما نلاحظ الفرق بين الاسهم القديمه والجديده ان صانع السوق قد اطال طول الموجات لتتوافق مع بعضعا وكما تلاحظون بالشارت الاسبوعى وضوح الشمس تفرع الموجات الداخليه , وهى تعطيى اشارة الخروج قريبا من السعر السابق اللذى وصل اليه اعمار , لاكن صريحا معكم فانى لا اعلم بالضبط الى اى سعر بالضبط سيصل وانما اقول امامكم الموجه الثانيه التصحيحيه والرابعه المشار حولها بدوائر ولكم ان تقاربوا عليها كل على حسب قناعته .

الان لنذهب الى الاسهم الجديده وعلى سبيل المثال ميثاق .

كما نرى بشارت ميثاق الاسبوعى بانه قد انهى الموجه الخامسه الدافعه وهو الان بالموجه التصحيحيه A وقد انهى الموجه الاولى والثانيه والثالثه والجزء الاول من الرابعه الصاعده وهو بطريقه الى انهاء الجزء الثانى منها ولكن على اى ارتفاع الاحتمال الكبير بان يكون اقل من الارتفاع السابف كما بالجزء الاول من الرابعه وهذا ليس شرطا ولكن مما رايت من المتابعه باغلب الاحيان تكون B فى الجزء الاول اعلى من الجزء الثانى .

الان تبقى على اعمار انهاء الجزء الثانى من الموجه الرابعه التصحيحيه الصاعده وبعد ذالك يذهب الى الموجه الخامسه وتوقعوها ان تصل الى 2.5 على اسوء تقدير لكى لا تتفاجؤ بذالك .

ان المنطق يقول ان اعمار احتمال وصوله الى اقل من ثلاثة دراهم كبير , من الشارت الاسبوعى لاعمار تلاحظون طول الموجه الاولى بحدود خمس دراهم من 15.9 الى 10.5 وطول الموجه الثالثه تقريبا من 11,9 الى 6,15 فان الموجه الخامسه اقل شيىء ستكون بحدود الخمس دراهم فاذا انقصناها بعد ان يكمل اعمار الجزء الثانى من الموجه الرابعه وسيكون بالتقريب بحدود 7,5 فان الناتج سيكون بحدود 2,5 والله يستر اذا كان اقل من ذالك ……………..عندها واكرر هذه الكلمه بانه ستكون انطلاقة اعمار الحقيقيه والشارت الاسبوعى للماكد يوضح ذالك .

الاخوه الكرام فى هذه الضروف ان بعض المحللين ان لم اقل الاكثريه قد استسلم لداو جونز فانى اقولها امامكم بانى لم استسلم له لان تلك متاهات قد وضعنا بها صانع السوق وهو ينفذ ما خطط له بدقه وقد اخبرتكم سابقا بما ستؤل اليه الامور قبل ان يبدا الداو جونز بالهبوط ولكن الموضوع قد مر مرور الكرام دون ان يستفيد منه الاكثريه …………………… الان امامكم فرصه للخروج وللدخول على الاسهم باسعار لن تتخيلوها .

وكذالك يمكن للمغامرين فقط من الاستفاده والدخول فى الموجه الخامسه بالمضاربه السريعه لان الموجه الخمسه تتكون من خمسة موجات اخرى ويمكن الدخول عند انتهاء الاولى وعند انتهاء الثالثه وعند انتهاء الخامسه وهو الارتداد الكبير اللذى يعلن بدخول الدوره الاقتصاديه الجديده للاسهم .

انى اسف من الجميع لعدم الاستجابه لاى رد مستفز من الاخرين , وانى على استعداد للاجابه عن اى سؤال يخص التحليلل .

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  1. WASHINGTON – World leaders will meet Nov. 15 in Washington to address the global financial crisis — the first in a series of summits to mitigate what economists predict could be a long and deep downturn.

    In making the announcement, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said the first meeting will focus on the underlying causes of the financial crisis, the global response and the principles that should guide any reforms.

    The summit will bring together leaders of the Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and the United States, the European Union China, Brazil, India, Russia, South Korea and other major economies. She said the White House would seek input from the winner of the U.S. presidential election who will take office on Jan. 20.

    Perino said countries would come to the summit with different approaches about what’s needed to fix the system. “I don’t believe that you’ll have any details coming out of this meeting in terms of things that everyone agrees to at the first meeting,” she said.

    The collapse of the housing market in the United States led to the tanking of the broader financial system, prompting a credit freeze in this country and around the globe. So far, though, a string of drastic actions by the Federal Reserve and the Bush administration has yet to turn around the economy. Businesses are reluctant to hire and boost capital investments, consumers have hunkered down, and all the economy’s problems are feeding off each other.

    This will be the first in a series of summits to bring the leaders together. At the first meeting, working groups will be set up to develop recommendations to be considered by leaders in subsequent summits. The White House will host a dinner on the eve of the summit. The location of the meeting, however, has not yet been announced.

    Bush, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, who met at the Camp David, Md., presidential retreat last week, announced the series of summit, saying the international community needs to work together to address the credit crisis that has shaken markets the world over.

    Bush has backed the steps that European nations have taken to fix the financial markets and is willing to listen to a range of ideas from both developed and developing nations. But he hasn’t signed on to the more ambitious, broad-stroke reforms that some European leaders have in mind to avoid a repeat of the market crisis that rippled around the globe.

    At Camp David, Bush warned that any international effort should preserve what he calls democratic capitalism — free markets, free enterprise, and free trade.

    Perino said not to expect the summit to yield decisions on new policy or regulation. The task of putting “meat on the bones” will be up to financial experts in the countries after the world leaders review the causes of the crisis, the response so far, and the principles of reform that should be adopted.

    “A lot of work will have to be done at the task force level, the working group level,” she said.

    The summit will take place 11 days after the U.S. presidential election, with Bush’s clout diminishing.

    Perino said there was no way to control the timing of the financial crisis, but that world leaders agreed that a summit was needed, and that Bush was excited to host it. “We will seek the input of the president-elect,” she said.

    Perino added that the two presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, were made aware of the summit and “they were supportive of the idea.” At a news conference in Richmond, Va., Obama declined to say whether he would attend the meeting of world leaders, saying “We have one president at a time.”

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the summit was “a positive, constructive step.”
    “I am hopeful that the meeting will not only address the immediate crisis facing the global economy but will begin to make the international financial system stronger and more secure,” Reid said.
  2. NEW YORK – Wall Street tumbled again Wednesday as investors shifted their focus from improving credit markets to worrisome corporate profit forecasts that are raising fears of a deep economic slowdown. The major indexes fell more than 2 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which lost about 350 points.

    While reduced strains in world credit markets have eased some investors’ nervousness about the economy, market anxiety remains high as hundreds of companies this week release third-quarter results and in some cases fourth-quarter forecasts that offer a glimpse of the rough conditions that may lay ahead.

    Wachovia Corp., which is being bought by Wells Fargo & Co., said it swung to a huge loss in the third quarter while the drugmaker Merck & Co. said its quarterly profit fell 28 percent and that it would cut more than 10 percent of its work force.

    Commercial and personal property insurer Travelers Cos. said hurricane-related losses pushed its third-quarter profit down 82 percent and forced it to lower its full-year forecast.
    John Thornton, co-portfolio manager at Stephens Investment Management Group LLC in Houston, said investors’ fear has shifted from the immediate concerns about tightness in credit and the resulting difficulty in borrowing to the broader economy as companies come out with their quarterly numbers.

    “Even if it weren’t for the credit crisis we’d probably be looking toward a pretty tough recession anyway,” he said. “The third-quarter earnings are kind of uninspiring but third quarter hasn’t been the real concern of people. I think the concern is the depth and duration of the downturn and the effect it’s going to have on earnings.”

    In early afternoon trading, the Dow fell 357.14, or 3.95 percent, to 8,676.52 after being down 412 points in the early going. On Tuesday, the Dow retreated 231 points after forecasts from DuPont Co., Sun Microsystems Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. raised fears about the economy.

    Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 40.25, or 4.21 percent, to 914.80, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 44.07, or 2.60 percent, to 1,652.61.

    Meanwhile, credit markets showed more signs of improvement after virtually freezing up last week. Bank-to-bank lending rates fell sharply overnight, indicating that credit is becoming easier to obtain. The London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, on three-month loans in dollars fell to 3.54 percent from 3.83 percent, dropping for an eighth straight day.

    Demand for Treasury bills, regarded as the safest assets around, grew slightly compared to the previous day as economic worries led investors to shun risky assets in favor of government bonds.

    The three-month Treasury bill yielded 0.99 percent, down from 1.07 percent late Tuesday. The levels are a notable improvement from the 0.20 percent seen last Wednesday, when investors were willing to take the slimmest of returns in exchange for a safe place to keep their money.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.62 percent from 3.74 percent late Tuesday. The dollar was sharply higher against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

    “We’re making slow progress and confidence is returning but we’re still not there yet,” said Christopher Cordaro, chief investment officer at RegentAtlantic Capital LLC in Chatham, N.J.

    He said the latest batch of quarterly results, which cover results through Sept. 30, don’t reflect the full brunt of the credit freeze-up felt this month and the nervousness among some consumers following the stock market’s swoon. While he expects corporate results will continue to worsen he also said the markets remain “in panic mode” and that investors are perhaps being overly dour in their assessment of how the economy will perform in the next few years.

    “When you look at the fundamentals of equities around the world stocks are selling for very cheap prices,” he said. “Behaviorally people project today’s current bad news much further out into the future than they should.”

    In corporate news, AT&T Inc. said its third-quarter earnings rose 5.5 percent but missed analyst expectations in part because of strong sales of iPhones, which the carrier subsidizes. The stock fell $1.59, or 6.2 percent, to $24.14.

    37.90 +1.57 +4.32
    Other companies reporting results were mixed. Travelers rose $1.57, or 4.3 percent, to $37.90, while Wachovia fell 20 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $5.89. Merck slid $1.14, or 3.8 percent, to $28.83.

    Thornton said the latest corporate forecasts are difficult to rely on because companies are grappling with many of the same unknowns that investors are struggling with about the extent of weakness in the economy.

    “These markets are making it difficult to gauge how much to read into management comments because clearly they’re dealing with unprecedented change in fundamentals. It’s hard to take their word on their outlook,” he said.

    Light, sweet crude fell $5.08 to $67.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, oil fell as a stronger dollar dented demand for commodities and overshadowed worries about a planned OPEC output cut.

    Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 651.1 million shares.

    The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 19.21, or 3.62 percent, to 511.44.

    Markets overseas fell sharply. Japan’s Nikkei stock average fell 6.79 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 4.46 percent, Germany’s DAX index fell 4.46 percent, and France’s CAC-40 lost 5.10 percent.
  3. يا عزمى يبدو ان مؤشرنا العزيز يتبع مؤشر العلوج … اذا حللت مؤشر العلوج ستعرف السبب

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