{"id":53336,"date":"2015-05-21T14:26:08","date_gmt":"2015-05-21T12:26:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/wordpress\/?p=53336"},"modified":"2015-05-21T14:26:08","modified_gmt":"2015-05-21T12:26:08","slug":"%d8%a7%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d8%aa%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%85-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a8-2-%d8%af%d8%b1%d9%87%d9%85-%d9%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/%d8%a7%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d8%aa%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%85-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a8-2-%d8%af%d8%b1%d9%87%d9%85-%d9%88\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u062a\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0642\u0627\u0631 … \u0627\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0628 2 \u062f\u0631\u0647\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631 3.5"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Investment recommendation
\nSharp downturn in the sector leads to doubts over the fate of the off-plan model
\nPreviously appearing impervious to the troubles faced by the global real estate market,
\nthe UAE real estate sector has been profoundly impacted by the prevailing credit crisis,
\nwith the off-plan market particularly hard hit. While some transactions are still taking place
\nin properties that are at least 1-1.5 years from completion (particularly in Abu Dhabi), the
\noff-plan market has come to a virtual standstill. This raises significant questions over what
\npercentage of the development costs developers will have to pay out of their own pocket.
\nThis factor, combined with the lack of clarity on what the “acceptable” price will be to
\nconvince property buyers to return to the market, is likely to sustain negative investor
\nsentiment in the short to medium term.
\nSlowdown in population growth to result in oversupply in Dubai in 2009
\nIn light of the economic slowdown, we have revised our population growth forecast
\ndownwards for Abu Dhabi and Dubai, with the former anticipated to see a 4% increase in
\n2009, while the latter is expected to record no growth in population. As a result of this
\nrevision, we expect housing supply in Dubai to outstrip demand in 2009, against our
\nprevious expectation of an imbalance in 2010. Abu Dhabi, in contrast, is expected to
\ncontinue to experience an acute housing shortage until at least 2012, in spite of the lower
\nforecasted population growth.
\nLack of financing and regulatory confusion harming demand
\nIn addition to the threat of an oversupply situation in Dubai, the real estate market is being
\nnegatively impacted by the sharp decline in availability of mortgage financing and growing
\nregulatory confusion. A key example of the latter is growing concern over the eligibility of
\nfreehold property buyers to obtain residency visas. The combination of these factors is
\nfurther damaging already weakening demand. In fact, we feel that a return of sufficient
\nliquidity to the mortgage market is a prerequisite for a recovery in the real estate market.
\nWhile the government is attempting to revitalise the mortgage industry through efforts
\nsuch as the merger of Amlak and Tamweel under Emirates Development Bank, it appears
\nthat these actions are unlikely to bear fruit until at least Q2-09.
\nDowngrading the sector
\nWe have downgraded Emaar, Union Properties, Aldar and Sorouh to 3\/Underperform. The
\nrating downgrade for the latter two comes in spite of an expectation of healthy growth in
\nthe Abu Dhabi real estate sector over the long term and is driven by the prevailing
\nconfusion over the fate of the off-plan financing model. Going forward, we expect
\ninvestors, particularly those in Dubai, to focus more on at least partially complete
\nproperties, rather than “greenfield” projects. Moreover, lack of clarity on how drastically
\nthe model could change is likely to keep investors focused on short-term cues rather than
\nlong-term “value plays” in the foreseeable future.
\nVALUATION TABLE
\nRating Target price P\/E (x) P\/BV (x)
New Old 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E
\nAldar Properties 3\/Underperform 3.5 12 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.4
\nEmaar Properties 3\/Underperform 2 11 2.4 2.6 0.3 0.3
\nSorouh Real Estate 3\/Underperform 3.5 8.5 3.0 2.8 1.1 0.8
\nUnion Properties 3\/Underperform 0.75 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.2
\nSource: Cheuvreux
\nJanuary 2009 MIDDLE EAST House Builders
www.cheuvreux.com<\/a><\/font>
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Investment recommendation Sharp downturn in the sector leads to doubts over the fate of the off-plan model Previously appearing impervious to the troubles faced by the global real estate market, the UAE real estate sector has been profoundly impacted by the prevailing credit crisis, with the off-plan market particularly hard hit. While some transactions are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":74,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-7"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/74"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53336\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.satfrequencies.com\/invest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}